| | Datum: | 03.02.04 | | Titel: | 21st CENTURY &SCIENCE&TECHNOLOGY 2003/2004: Solar Cycles, Not CO2 ,Determine Climate | | Link: | www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202004/Winter2003-4/global_warming.pdf | | Details1: | Solar Cycles, Not CO2 , Determine Climate
by Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc.
Dr. Jaworowski states e.g. (p. 64)
“…observations in Russia established a very high correlation
between the average power of the solar activity cycles (of
10 years to 11.5 years duration) and the surface air temperature,
and “leave little room for anthropogenic impact on the
Earth’s climate.”55 Bashkirtsev and Mashnich, Russian physicists
from the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Irkutsk,
found that between 1882 and 2000, the temperature response
of the atmospheric air lagged behind the sunspot cycles by
approximately 3 years in Irkutsk, and by 2 years over the entire
globe.56 They found that the lowest temperatures in the early
1900s corresponded to the lowest solar activity, and that other
temperature variations, until the end of the century, followed
the fluctuations of solar activity.
The current sunspot cycle is weaker than the preceding
cycles, and the next two cycles will be even weaker.
Bashkirtsev and Mishnich expect that the minimum of the secular
cycle of solar activity will occur between 2021 and 2026,
which will result in the minimum global temperature of the
surface air. The shift from warm to cool climate might have
already started. The average annual air temperature in Irkutsk,
which correlates well with the average annual global temperature
of the surface air, reached its maximum of +2.3°C in
1997, and then began to drop to +1.2°C in 1998, to +0.7°C in
1999, and to +0.4°C in 2000. This prediction is in agreement
with major changes observed currently in biota of Pacific
Ocean, associated with an oscillating climate cycle of about
50 years’ periodicity.57
The approaching new Ice Age poses a real challenge for
mankind, much greater than all the other challenges in history.
Before it comes—let’s enjoy the warming, this benign gift from
nature, and let’s vigorously investigate the physics of clouds….”
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